OK, so I went with the lip side out, but in truth, either side ended up having the same alignment due to the structure of the sprocket. It lined up along the chain guide identically. I did find that my Sandman case saver will not go back on, unless I want the chain to rub against it. For now, I'll run without it.
For the chain tension, I found a reference to someone with a 14/50 combo having done the swingarm alignment technique. Their result was a total of 1", or 25mm once it was on the side stand. That is pretty close to my estimate of adding 9mm to the 14/49 combo. So I set tension a bit less than an inch, pressing up from the middle of the chain while on the side stand. Did a test run and it all felt pretty good.
I also replaced my tires, adding D606 to the rear (MT21 front). With the taller profile of tire, the increased gear ratio ends up just about where I was with stock. I'd set my SpeedoDRD thing with a GPS, back with the stock tires and gears. On my test ride, I found the speed reading was about 1mph higher than the GPS. Close enough for me to keep it the same. Maybe I'll try the 13 tooth and see how much it screams at speed.
2016 Super Tenere